- The Elective
- Posts
- ☀️ New year, new president (of Venezuela)
☀️ New year, new president (of Venezuela)
PLUS: Reports, retirements, and renewals
Good morning and happy New Year! Welcome back.
Many of President Trump’s 2025 tariff threats didn’t quite materialize. Others got cut before coming into effect. High on that second list for all people of good conscience? Italian pasta imports. The threatened tariff was just slashed from 92% to, depending on brand, 2%. We’re not sure if this is a sign or not, but if it is … it’s definitely not a bad one.
WORLD
🌎️ U.S. invades Venezuela, captures president
The CIA director, the president, and the secretary of State monitor the situation in Venezuela.
As long as you’re not the president of Venezuela, 2026 is looking good so far. If you are the president of Venezuela, you’re probably sitting in a New York City jail cell right now, waiting for your first court appearance to start in a few hours.
On Saturday morning, U.S. forces launched strikes against Venezuela that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. Maduro was indicted in the U.S. in 2020 on narcoterrorism charges and again recently for scheming to import "thousands of tons" of cocaine.
Operation Absolute Resolve included airstrikes from more than 150 aircraft to take out Venezuela's defense infrastructure.
The raid to actually grab Maduro was conducted by two elite Army special forces units: the Delta Force and the Night Stalkers.
Two U.S. service personnel were injured, but none were killed.
Can they just … do that? Busting into a foreign country and arresting its president is never going to be a popular move on the world stage (as demonstrated by the weekend’s reactions). But yes, the U.S. can pretty much do whatever it can get away with. That won’t, however, stop anyone from accusing the U.S. of breaking international law.
“International law” in this case typically refers to the U.N. Charter, which prohibits invading another country unless it’s in self-defense.
The Trump administration says it's defending America against deadly drug trafficking backed by Venezuela's government.
That doesn't technically qualify by U.N. standards (whatever you think of those).
This isn’t the first time we‘ve invaded a Latin American country, captured its dictator on January 3, and flown him to the U.S. to face drug charges. In December of 1989, the U.S. unleashed a full-scale ground invasion of Panama. Two weeks later, dictator Manuel Noriega was captured and shipped off to stand trial in Florida.
He served 17 years in an American prison before being sent to France to serve 7 years there … before being sent back home and eventually dying in a Panamanian prison.
Trump didn’t get Congress’s permission. Should he have? That depends on who’s asking. Presidents always say they have tons of military power, and members of Congress (usually of the opposite party) always disagree.
Longer operations, like the Iraq War, are authorized by Congress ahead of time.
Shorter operations, like that invasion of Panama or when Obama went into Libya in 2011, usually aren’t. But this isn’t without controversy.
Senate Democrats aren't happy about this. They say Trump's invasion "risks plunging a hemisphere into chaos." They've forced a vote this week to prevent him from continuing.
Venezuela has tons of oil. More than any other country in the world, actually, including Saudi Arabia. But its oil output has collapsed since Maduro took over in 2013. And economic problems followed.
What’s the plan, Stan? TBD.
Seriously? Yeah, pretty much. Things are moving fast right now. Trump initially said the U.S. would run the show until things settle down, and wouldn't rule out committing ground troops to that effort. He wants to "get the oil flowing the way it should be,” but that’s not easy, and nobody’s sure yet what it means.
One Venezuelan opposition leader won the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, and another lost a rigged presidential election in 2024.
But Venezuelan VP Delcy Rodríguez is running the show for now, and her government still backs Maduro.
That’s not going to work for Trump, obviously. He’s warned Maduro’s allies to “surrender or play ball.”
No one knows what this will look like when the dust settles. But Secretary of State Marco Rubio hopes it includes a "transition to democracy."
GOVERNMENT
👨⚖️ On New Year's Eve, Chief Justice of the United States John G. Roberts issued his annual "Year End Report on the Federal Judiciary." In it, he spent a good bit of time on American history. The Declaration of Independence turns 250 in July, and the Constitution has now been in force for 236 years. Roberts defended the judiciary's constitutional design as a "counter-majoritarian check" on Congress and the executive branch. But he otherwise avoided political hot potatoes and urged Americans to renew their faith in the system that has worked for so long.
💰️ Following the (disputed) allegations of $100 million in fraud in Minnesota daycares, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has frozen the payments from the Child Care and Development Fund. The story goes that Somali immigrants are, among other schemes, running fake daycares and billing the federal government for services that don’t exist. All 50 states will need to submit extra data for review, but Minnesota will have to pass even stricter tests. Other federal agencies, meanwhile, are investigating Minnesota's other federally funded programs. The DOJ claims fraud in Minnesota's Medicaid program could be as high as $9 billion. In response, Gov. Tim Walz accused Trump of "politicizing the issue" and harming children instead of genuinely tackling fraud.
🔎 The top dawg at the Government Accountability Office (GAO) retired last week after 17 years on the job. As U.S. comptroller general, Gene Dodaro led the GAO in its mission to continuously audit the federal government … and pretty much constantly piss off pretty much everybody. Dodaro spent much of 2025 duking it out with Republicans after concluding many of the Trump administration's budgetary tricks are illegal. But the GAO is an equal opportunity offender. Back in 2024, Democrats and the Biden White House were furious after Dodaro's number nerds found the federal government lost up to $521 billion per year to fraud. A temp is in charge right now until Trump nominates (and the Senate confirms) a replacement.
POLITICS
🎢 Congress barrels toward another shutdown
It’s been a long, long 54 days since the Great Government Shutdown of 2025™ ended.
But the deal that brought that bad boy to a close was just that: a deal. Large parts of the government are only funded until January 30, 2026. Which means it is once again time for a knockdown, drag-out, no-holds-barred congressional budget fight.
It’s an election year now, so everyone’s on their best behavior. Both parties appear to be trying to avoid a repeat of last fall. Democrats aren't demanding any health care deals, and the White House is letting congressional Republicans do their jobs without too much presidential involvement.
We’ll find out in the next few weeks whether that peace holds long enough to get a deal done. But it’s January, so we’re choosing to be optimistic.
Elsewhere in American politics:
Elon Musk’s net worth soared to more than $700 billion last month after he received extra Tesla stock and news broke that he wants to take SpaceX public. Rumors are swirling now that he’ll use some of that fortune to go “all in” on helping Republicans win the 2026 midterms.
At midnight on New Year’s Eve (New York is weird like that), Zohran Mamdani was sworn in as the Big Apple’s 112th mayor. Per his request, the ceremony took place in an abandoned subway station beneath City Hall. Big Batman vibes down there.
Speaking of the midterms, this year's stock of candidates is loaded with more Heir Force candidates than normal. Things change over time, but hitting that last name lottery still pays in politics.
TRIVIA
Most people in high office have held some sort of political power before. JD Vance and Kamala Harris were senators. Mike Pence was a governor. Joe Biden helped Moses free the Israelites from ancient Egypt.
During today’s story on Venezuela, we mentioned the U.S.’s 1989 invasion of Panama. That operation was led, in part, by a secretary of Defense who went on to serve as vice president of the United States. Which future VP served as U.S. secretary of Defense in 1989?
Hint: Vance would’ve been 5 years old, so he’s out. Harris would’ve been 25, which is also a bit young.
BRIEFS
● Much to the chagrin of Denmark, President Trump ended 2025 by renewing his push to acquire Greenland. He cited the threat posed by Russian and Chinese ships in the Arctic. In pursuit of this goal, he named Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry special envoy to Greenland.
● Trump announced a new line of U.S. Navy “battleships” as part of his revamped "Golden Fleet." Construction of the first Trump-class vessel, the USS Defiant, will begin soon and will be the first of a planned 25.
● In his eight-hour testimony to Congress in December, former DOJ special counsel Jack Smith defended his decision to bring charges against President Trump, said his decision wasn’t political, and claimed he never spoke to the Biden White House about it.
● An assessment by U.S. intel officials found that Ukraine was not behind a drone attack targeting Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russia disputes this and handed over evidence it says proves Ukraine was responsible. Ukraine has denied the accusation.
● The State Department denied travel visas to five Europeans involved in creating the EU's controversial online content moderation law. U.S. officials called them "agents of the global censorship-industrial complex" who blacklisted Americans for online speech.
QUOTE
On too many stories, the press has missed the story. Because we've taken into account the perspective of advocates and not the average American. Or we put too much weight in the analysis of academics or elites, and not enough on you.
ANSWER
The man President George H.W. Bush lovingly referred to as “old Iron-Ass” served as his secretary of Defense from 1989 to 1993. Eight years later, Dick Cheney took office as George W. Bush’s vice president before embarking on a short-lived career as an amateur quail hunter.